Henley
Boris has confirmed that he is stepping down as MP for Henley, as he promised when he was running for London Mayor.
Still no date for the by-election but an announcement must be imminent. Most people are expecting a resounding victory for the Conservatives, given their national improvements. I wouldn’t be so sure myself, by-elections are strange beasts and the usual form book is useless.
I think we have a sporting chance, it seems clear that the dynamics are different to the Crewe election, and the Conservatives will have a different set of problems to overcome.
I suspect they will have some difficulty mobilising their troops for a potentially safe seat - it is hard to motivate people to go to something they think is a foregone conclusion. In Crewe, they knew they were in with a chance of a historic victory and so the masses came.
The media are another unknown quantity - they can’t paint this one as a Labour/Tory fight, so they might look for new targets, and the Tories are the obvious one.
I also have a sneaking suspicion that the weather and competing social events could play a role.
I hope to be going to help, and I shall report back on the vibes in due course.
have your say
